The New American President May Bring Global Détente

Today, the United States of America elected the 44th president, African-American Senator Barack Obama. Upon evaluating the results, György Nógrádi told honvedelem.hu: this has been the greatest victory in the history of America, moreover, it happened with outstandingly high turnout. The victory of Barack Obama was especially great among young voters.

New Atlantic relations

György Nógrádi emphasized: the defeat of John McCain was mostly the consequence of the emerging economic and financial crisis. The Republican candidate admitted: he is not familiar with economic issues, what he knows about this subject is from the book of the chairman of Fed. The security expert also told us that in the American elections, foreign- and security policy are not significant – these topics are important for Europe mainly.

Regarding the new president to be sworn in on January 20, György Nógrádi noted: the most important factor is that Barack Obama bases his foreign- and security policy on settlement by negotiation. This is reflected in the fact that politicians – who were decisive in earlier years – like Richard Hoolbrooke, and former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski have joined his team. Though the latter is already in his seventies but despite his nickname – ’egghead’ – he is a politician with a clean head – said the security policy expert.

As regards the expected changes, it was mentioned by György Nógrádi in the first place that Barack Obama is most likely to put an end to the unilateral policy which characterized the era of George W. Bush for eight years and practically isolated the United States. Another important element is that the Democratic candidate, who can be considered president now, will make efforts to establish new Atlantic relations. This is quite significant because many experts believe that during his eight years in office, George W. Bush has ruined the US–EU relations.

György Nógrádi added: in the Bush years, practically the United States governed Europe. On many occasions, the ambassadors accredited to this continent told the ministers of various countries how to act in certain issues. As a result of that, people were extremely against America even in higher political circles. Another important point of difference is that while the question of ‘pushing out’ Russia from the G8 has arisen on the Republican side, Barack Obama tries to build a special relationship with Moscow. In addition to that, the new Democratic president will be the first leader of the United States to have a clear-cut policy on Africa.

Instead of cold war, compromise

Some reckoned that Barack Obama is forced to choose doing politics by negotiations because of the financial and economic crisis. György Nógrádi highlighted: the Democratic candidate would have hit a more conciliating tone regardless of the crisis. Of course it is true that the new president will have to appoint a treasury secretary who is able to lead America out of depression and who is accepted by the European Union as well. As security policy expert Péter Tálas told our site earlier, the foreign policy of Bush cannot be continued with the intensity of the past years.

An important change pointed out by György Nógrádi is that Barack Obama wants to withdraw US troops from Iraq within a specific time limit. The country’s policy towards Russia may transform as well. In all probability, the United States will not act in the future in the territory of the new independent states in the same way it did in Georgia. The security expert expects a change in Washington’s Afghanistan policy as well. Of course Barack Obama, who is more unfamiliar with foreign policy, has to assess the situation first: what is the real situation like, what are the things he was not told about, and which is the policy that can be supported by the EU as well.

In the case of America, its relations with China also matter. György Nógrádi believes that the leadership of China was wise when they announced that they will be cooperating with the president who is chosen by the Americans. At the same time, the relations between the two countries hit the bottom and were practically haunted by the spirit of the cold war under George Bush. Therefore the expert considers it important that – in all probability – Barack Obama will try to reach a compromise in bilateral relations, the issue of Taiwan, and that of the North Korean nuclear programme.

Islamic, Jewish roots

György Nógrádi also mentioned that the arrival of Barack Obama can bring changes in the fight against international terrorism as well, for the policy practiced to date was based on wrong and unrighteous ideology – according to the security policy expert. America has to develop a new strategy, led by the Democratic president: which are those groups that are – or used to be – considered terrorist groups, which groups can be negotiated with, which are those where disorganization will be sufficient, and those that have to be acted against by arms in the future as well. This fits the opinion of Péter Tálas, namely that armed fight is just one tool against terrorism.

Having both Islamic and Jewish roots can help Barack Obama in developing the proper strategy – said György Nógrádi. In the opinion of the security policy expert, the Democratic President’s knowledge of world religions helps him be unbiased. He has learned from his life, he has a different empathy for various religious beliefs and ideologies.This can also mean that he will act against international terrorism with the hope to succeed. Of course, it is still a question whom is he going to surround himself with due to his inexperience in the field of foreign policy.

Péter Tálas noted that the current leadership of Pentagon, with Defense Secretary Robert Gates in the lead may survive the change of presidency. György Nógrádi emphasized: on the other hand, ’saving’ persons like Condoleeza Rice or Dick Cheney cannot occur. It is still uncertain what role Barack Obama has in mind for Colin Powell, the Secretary of State of the first Bush cabinet, who was removed unfairly. Colin Powell supported Barack Obama in the campaign.