A New Strategy Is Needed In Afghanistan

György Nógrádi said: in his opinion, such a thing as Afghanistan in itself does not exist today – at least not as a security policy factor –, one has to think in terms of the region. And this region covers the area between India and the Mediterranean, which has become a crisis zone. One of the blocks of this zone is the inner ring of the Middle East, the second one is Iraq, and the third one is Afghanistan. And it is important because the conflicts in these areas cannot be consolidated independently.

Moreover, the problems cannot be solved without Iran. This is also reflected by the fact that the United States of America follows a new strategy for Iran, and the Persian country was invited to the Shanghai Forum in Moscow and the Afghanistan summit in the Netherlands. This clearly proves that the US is aware that there is no consolidation without Iran.

– One has to realize that no solution can be reached in the area without Iran! For at the moment, both Iran and Pakistan assist the Afghan insurgents. Therefore Iran and Pakistan, too, have to be made interested in consolidation. This is the only way – to cite the expression the Americans like to use often – to ’win a tie’ in Afghanistan – said György Nógrádi.

It makes the situation more complex that the United States of America does not trust Pakistan. The reason for this is that Pakistan is ‘an ally and a foe at the same time’, in other words, the military and the security service of the country is divided. The security service of Pakistan – which is regarded by Mr Nógrádi as one of the best organizations of such nature in the world – is so much divided that a part of the agents report to the Americans, and the rest of them report to the Taliban.

The security policy expert also emphasized that for the new US administration, Afghanistan has become the main front of action in the past months. The question was posed in early February at the security policy forum held in Munich, where US Vice President John Biden said: in the future, the allies will have more say in the question of Afghanistan, but at the same time a greater contribution is expected from them. European NATO member states have to decide whether to give money, or send new troops to the area.

There are plans for the conclusion of an agreement at the meeting, under which both countries will take action against extremists in their territories.

– The United States of America pledged a one billion dollar non-military assistance for Pakistan. I would like to note that only nine percent of the amount sent so far has been used for the purposes it was meant originally. The rest of the funds were expended on other purposes or were simply stolen – said György Nógrádi.

The security policy expert added: unfortunately, NATO still does not have a strategy for withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the ultimate aim of the mission has not yet been identified either. In the view of Mr Nógrádi, NATO – being a military organization fundamentally – is not yet prepared for the civilian tasks to be implemented in Afghanistan, and for the fact that the majority of the Afghan population is against NATO. It is also a fundamental mistake made by the Alliance in Afghanistan that it does not deal with the Afghan people themselves, or food prices and reconstruction teams. For example, there are a number of aid groups who are active in the country but their work oven overlaps and this further increases the extent of confusion.

Besides, there is no strategy either for what the population should grow instead of poppies. For drugs are becoming an increasingly serious problem. It is known by everyone today that 70-90 percent of the world’s opium production originate from Afghanistan. Moreover, the income from drug production – as Mr Nógrádi put it: ’we are talking about billions of dollars’ – lands in the pockets of warlords. The drug mafia is well-organized and today it already produces clean opium with the help of experts ’imported’ from the West.

Speaking about military issues, György Nógrádi said: as the weather turns warmer, Al Qaeda and the Taliban will probably launch attacks against NATO troops again. And one has to prepare for high casualties on both sides in this offensive. One of the reasons for this, unfortunately, is that NATO’s strategy, which is aimed at turning Al Qaeda and the Taliban against each other and reaching an agreement with the latter, has not produced results to date.

– Alliance troops have been stationed in Afghanistan for eight years, but no big successes have been achieved. Even though NATO has crushed the high command of Al Qaeda, the new leadership which replaced them is younger, less educated, and more brutal than their predecessors – emphasized György Nógrádi.

The security policy expert also underlined that the United States of America will have to make a decision before the Afghanistan elections scheduled for August whether to stand by President Karzai or not. For the population is increasingly opposing Karzai day by day, who is very corrupt even in the eye of the Afghans. What is more, he can only exercise his power in a small geographical area. Mr Nógrádi added: the international appearances of Hamid Karzai are unfortunate as well. For example he announced at the February security policy forum in Munich that seven million people have been schooled in the country and more than four thousand kilometers of road have been constructed. Altough everyone knows that this is nothing else but a success propaganda, or to put it another way, a lie.

As regards corruption, the security policy expert noted: the phenomenon now affects even those layers of society where this word had been unknown before. For instance even intellectuals, university professors or rectors can be corrupted. There were even a police corps that had to be disbanded because the personnel were so corrupt.

A new strategy is needed for Afghanistan – said György Nógrádi –, and NATO, as well as the United States of America have to put together a new strategy as well. In the opinion of the security policy expert, the European member states of the North Atlantic Alliance will be surprised, since the US would like to deploy NATO globally in the future. This means that Article 5, which will remain effective, of course, will be re-evaluated and its core will be that in the future, NATO will be capable of making a relatively fast intervention anywhere in the world.

The new strategy will probably be announced by NATO’s new secretary-general soon after taking office.